Hollywood is putting content online in various formats. You have NetFlix, where subscribers can stream movies and TV without ads, The Networks all allow streaming access to shows, but with one commercial per break (though ABC is trying for more), there is Hulu, a venture between NBC and FOX to put their shows online in one central place, and you can purchase shows on a per-episode basis from iTunes. I'm not going to go into the details here, but each approach has it's ups and downs.
Now, I should mention here that I don't own a TV at all. I have a 24" iMac that sits in my small Brooklyn living room that I use as the primary source of my entertainment. The quality of most streaming sites (ABC.com's HD streams in particular) is very watchable full screen, and the audio quality is also descent.
One of the biggest driving factors in a new digital technology is always ease of use. This is why the iPod caught on, and it's why Google dominates search- people can navigate them both with ease. For any streaming site to really dominate and grab viewers (and therefore higher CPMs from Advertisers) they need to have an easy to use interface, lots of diverse content, and an Ad model that isn't intrusive.
Hulu is probably in the best place for growth moving forward. It's simple, clean interface makes it easy to bring up a video -selecting an episode of any show can be done in as little as three clicks. You can have your own que of shows to watch, and the option to embed clips. All in all, it's a well thought out site, with a balance between content control for the networks and availability for viewers. My one complaint is the constant pulling of some shows- For example at one point several seasons of The Office was availalbe, only to be pulled back to three or four episodes as of late. For Hulu to become the market leader (and at this point I don't think there is one) it will need to reliably make all content available for shows that it carries.
Mobile is never going to be big for video until wireless streaming gets to a speed similar to what we're accustomed to with broadcast TV, and I would imagine that the devices would be similar to satelite radio, where you have a smaller unit that plugs into larger devices. There's also a saftey issue that comes into play here- lately there's been news about how texting while driving / walking causes accidents, and the risk would be greater with video. Mobile Video just isn't going to catch on the way that say audio podcasts have.
I give it about three years before things start to solidify in this sector.
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